Polymarket AI Bubble Burst Probability Rises to 28% as Leopold Fund Liquidates

Prediction market Polymarket has launched a market on whether the AI bubble will burst, assessing the probability of a major AI downturn by end of 2026. As trading progressed, the implied probability of a crash rose from 19% on July 29 to around 28% on July 30, with total volume near $2.9 million. Meanwhile, former OpenAI board member Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund reportedly liquidated all public stock positions after heavy losses in AI infrastructure.

Confirmed

Polymarket defines a bubble burst with strict quantitative criteria: within a 90-day window, at least three of several industry downturn signals must trigger, including NVIDIA (NVDA) falling 50% from all-time highs, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) falling 40%, and major AI companies like OpenAI or Anthropic experiencing significant valuation declines or major setbacks (e.g., bankruptcy or acquisition).
The criteria also include specific industry metrics such as H100 rental prices dropping below $1.
According to CNBC, Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund recently liquidated all public stock positions. Tipster @amasad suggested this was likely a forced sale due to severe liquidity issues.

Why it matters

Compared to subjective expert opinions, prediction markets provide quantitative market sentiment indicators through real-money bets. The clear trigger conditions offer observers concrete metrics to track macro risks in the AI industry.
As a former OpenAI researcher and board member, Leopold Aschenbrenner was extremely bullish on AI assets, with his fund growing to $20 billion in under two years. The liquidation due to heavy AI infrastructure losses intensifies concerns about an AI bubble bursting.

2026-07-29 ~ 2026-07-31 · 16 related posts

Primary sources

Polymarket prices only 19% odds that the AI bubble will burst — Polymarket · 2026-07-29 05:26 (UTC+08:00)
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Hedge Fund Liquidates Public Portfolio After Heavy AI Infra Losses — Polymarket · 2026-07-30 22:49 (UTC+08:00)
Report: Leopold Aschenbrenner Forced to Liquidate All Stock Positions — amasad · 2026-07-30 23:50 (UTC+08:00)

[source] Polymarket prices only 19% odds that the AI bubble will burst — Polymarket · 2026-07-29
Polymarket Odds of AI Bubble Bursting Hit 28%; Yahoo's 10-Year Claude Code Requirement Mocked — Polymarket · 2026-07-30
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Hedge Fund Reportedly Liquidates Entire US Stock Portfolio — downingARK · 2026-07-30
[source] Leopold Aschenbrenner's Hedge Fund Liquidates Public Portfolio After Heavy AI Infra Losses — Polymarket · 2026-07-30
Leopold's AI Fund Exits All Public Equity Positions Amid Market Turbulence — SumitGup · 2026-07-30
[source] Report: Leopold Aschenbrenner Forced to Liquidate All Stock Positions — amasad · 2026-07-30
Odds of AI Bubble Bursting Jump to 22% as Leopold's Fund Exits Stocks — Polymarket · 2026-07-31

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