Polymarket Odds: 22% Chance of an AI Bubble Burst by 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-31
Prediction market Polymarket currently places the probability of an AI industry downturn by the end of 2026 at 22%.
The market's resolution criteria are strict, defining a downturn as at least 3 of the following events occurring within a 90-day window:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) stock drops 50% from its ATH
- iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) drops 40% from its ATH
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy
- OpenAI is acquired
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for 5 consecutive days
- Major AI hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, etc.) drop 50% from ATHs
In related AI security news, a growing number of job applicants are reportedly hiding prompt injections in their résumés to trick AI screening tools into ranking them as qualified candidates.
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