Polymarket prices only 19% odds that the AI bubble will burst
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-29
Polymarket is pricing just 19% odds that the AI bubble bursts.
The market definition ties a “downturn” to a set of concrete stress signals, including:
- NVIDIA down 50% from its all-time high,
- SOXX down 40%,
- OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy or acquisition,
- H100 rental prices falling to $1 for five straight days,
- or a 50% drop in major AI hardware suppliers such as TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista, or Super Micro.
The post also echoes the broader bull case: massive AI infrastructure capex could reach trillions by 2030.
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