Polymarket Outlines AI Bubble Burst Conditions: H100 Rent Below $1
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-30
Prediction market Polymarket currently estimates a 23% chance of an AI bubble bursting by the end of 2026. The platform lists specific quantitative criteria for this downturn, requiring at least three to occur within a 90-day window:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) stock drops 50% from its all-time high
- SOXX Semiconductor ETF drops 40%
- OpenAI declares bankruptcy or is acquired
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days
- Major AI hardware suppliers like TSMC, ASML, or Super Micro Computer drop 50% in stock price
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