Polymarket Defines AI Bubble Burst Criteria, Sets Odds at 23%
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-30
Amid discussions about AI infrastructure losses, prediction market Polymarket has outlined specific quantitative criteria and current odds for an "AI bubble burst."
The market currently prices a 23% chance of an AI industry downturn by the end of 2026. To resolve as "Yes," at least three of the following conditions must occur within a 90-day window:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) closing stock price drops 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) drops 40% from its peak.
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
- Major AI hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, etc.) drop 50% from their all-time highs.
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