Toby Ord Flags AI 2027 Forecast Table as Mislabelled
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord noted that AI 2027's forecast table was bolded as 'all-things-considered' despite actually being conditional on no deliberate slowdown of frontier AI, prompting author Eli Lifland to respond that the no-slowdown premise was stated in the report.
2026-11-12 ~ 2026-11-12 · 4 related posts
- Episode 1: AI 2027 Team Moves Up Timeline: Intelligence Explosion May Come in 2027(2026-11-11, 35 posts)
- Episode 2: Forecaster Moves Top-Expert AI Arrival Estimate Up to 2028(2026-11-11, 2 posts)
- Episode 3: AI Risk Community Split Over Whether an Intelligence Explosion Hits Next Year(2026-11-11, 6 posts)
- Episode 4: Leaked AI Timeline Forecasts Cluster Around 2027-2028(2026-11-11, 2 posts)
- Episode 5: Toby Ord Flags AI 2027 Forecast Table as Mislabelled(2026-11-12, 4 posts)
- Toby Ord clarifies AI 2027 forecasts are conditional: SAR median Aug-Nov 2027, TED-AI odds 35-65% — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-12
- Toby Ord flags 'all-things-considered' AGI forecast table is actually conditional on no pacing — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-12
- Toby Ord flags major wording error in AI forecast: pacing assumptions wrongly omitted — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-12
- AI 2027 authors defend SAR-by-2027 forecast as conditional on no slowdown — eli_lifland · 2026-11-12