AI 2027 authors defend SAR-by-2027 forecast as conditional on no slowdown
eli_lifland · x · 2026-11-12
Eli Lifland responds to Toby Ord and Daniel Kokotajlo: the AI 2027 forecast already states at the top of the "all things considered" section that the Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) by 2027 prediction is conditional on no substantial deliberate slowdown. The text also gives a 35-65% chance that Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI), automating all white-collar work, arrives before 2028, with the METR report as the biggest evidence source. Lifland offers to bold the caveat.
Related event: Toby Ord Flags AI 2027 Forecast Table as Mislabelled(4 posts)→
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