Leaked AI Timeline Forecasts Cluster Around 2027-2028
A compiled forecast table shows six AI timeline forecasters' median predictions clustering around 2027-2028. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord cautioned the table omits key forecasters and slowdown scenarios, limiting its reference value.
2026-11-11 ~ 2026-11-12 · 2 related posts
- Episode 1: AI 2027 Team Moves Up Timeline: Intelligence Explosion May Come in 2027(2026-11-11, 35 posts)
- Episode 2: Forecaster Moves Top-Expert AI Arrival Estimate Up to 2028(2026-11-11, 2 posts)
- Episode 3: AI Risk Community Split Over Whether an Intelligence Explosion Hits Next Year(2026-11-11, 6 posts)
- Episode 4: Leaked AI Timeline Forecasts Cluster Around 2027-2028(2026-11-11, 2 posts)
- AI timeline forecasters' odds revealed: TED-AI medians cluster in 2027-2028, p by EO2027 up to 65% — davidmanheim · 2026-11-11
- Toby Ord: AI timeline forecasts are hard to judge as they assume no substantial slowdown — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-12