Toby Ord clarifies AI 2027 forecasts are conditional: SAR median Aug-Nov 2027, TED-AI odds 35-65%
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-12
Amid confusion over wording in the AI 2027 team's forecast post, Toby Ord clarifies that the 'all-things-considered forecasts' table is explicitly conditional on no 'pacing the frontier'—i.e., no deliberate slowdown in achieving capability levels.
The table shows each author's SAR median (May-Nov 2027), TED-AI median (Sep 2027-Sep 2028), and p(TED-AI by EO2027) ranging from 35% to 65% (Daniel highest).
Related event: Toby Ord Flags AI 2027 Forecast Table as Mislabelled(4 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- The worst AI use signals you don't care about things you should care about — Afinetheorem · 2026-11-12
- Worst AI use: signaling you don't care about things you should — Afinetheorem · 2026-11-12
- Stanford HAI blueprint: 56 US agencies report 3,611 AI use cases, evaluation lags — StanfordHAI · 2026-11-12
- Fleuret amplifies debate: AI can't slash wet-lab experiments in unmapped biology — francoisfleuret · 2026-11-12
- Recursive bets on open-endedness: agents running massive parallel experiments like scientist communities — agihouse_org · 2026-11-12
- Recursive's Tim Shi maps recursive self-improvement: from learning data to discovering architectures — agihouse_org · 2026-11-12