Oxford philosopher Toby Ord puts odds of imminent intelligence explosion at about 1 in 8

Oxford philosopher Toby Ord estimates a roughly 1-in-8 chance of an intelligence explosion next year, arguing AI development should slow down even if the risk seems low. He notes the gap between explosion forecasters and skeptics is smaller than assumed, with predictions centering on superhuman coders by 2027 rather than immediate transformative impact.

2026-11-11 ~ 2026-11-11 · 3 related posts

• Toby Ord defends AI-2027-style forecasts: no explosion wouldn't discredit a ~50% intelligence-exhaustion bet — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-11
• Toby Ord puts ~1-in-8 odds on an intelligence explosion next year, backs slowing down — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-11
• Toby Ord: explosion forecasters see super-human coder in 2027, closer to skeptics than it seems — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-11