Toby Ord flags major wording error in AI forecast: pacing assumptions wrongly omitted
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-12
AI safety researcher Toby Ord joined a discussion criticizing a prominent forecasting post for a serious wording error: its bolded conclusions are not all-things-considered, yet repeated as such. He argues some form of pacing is quite likely and would affect timelines, so assuming it away is a major unstated condition. Ord says he's suggested the wording be fixed, admitting the confusing phrasing makes alternative readings plausible.
Related event: Toby Ord Flags AI 2027 Forecast Table as Mislabelled(4 posts)→
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