Toby Ord flags 'all-things-considered' AGI forecast table is actually conditional on no pacing
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-12
Philosopher Toby Ord points out a significant error in an AGI timeline post: a forecast table is labeled twice in bold as "Authors' all-things-considered forecasts," yet the post explicitly states it is conditional on no substantial pacing or slowdown. Ord argues pacing of some form is fairly likely and would affect timing, so assuming it away is a major condition, and the post should be corrected. The thread also touches on whether the table covers forecasters like Ryan Greenblatt and Ajeya Cotra.
Related event: Toby Ord Flags AI 2027 Forecast Table as Mislabelled(4 posts)→
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