Survey of AI Researchers: Mean 18% Extinction Risk, Concerns Rising Year over Year

On September 15, 2024, the latest round of the longest-running large-scale tracking survey of AI researchers was released: conducted by Katja Grace and others through AI Impacts, it asked 1,580 AI researchers for their probability estimates of catastrophic/extinction risk from AI. Respondents estimated on average about an 18% chance that AI would cause human extinction or an equivalently severe and irreversible "permanently disempowering humanity" outcome. Why it matters: this is among the most direct first-hand data on the real probability distribution of AGI risk held within the research field.

Confirmed

• The survey covered 1,580 AI researchers, with results published as a paper (Nathan Young and others involved in the release).
• The average estimated probability of extinction or permanent disempowerment was about 18%, nearly one in five.
• A 10% probability of AI extinction risk is a common, normal estimate among researchers; when all respondents are ranked by their answers, quite a number of researchers place the risk well above 10%.
• A chart shared by Katja Grace on how the distribution of concern shifted over one year shows the academic community's concern distribution over catastrophic risk has shifted upward overall.

Why it matters

• Katja Grace summarized two points of consensus she heard from people in the field: AI progress has far exceeded researchers' prior expectations; and catastrophic risk has been looming for a long time, with concerns deepening.
• Researchers' timeline predictions for achieving human-level AI have shortened rapidly, compounding with rising risk concerns — showing the growing worry is not baseless but accompanies accelerating capability progress.
• Nathan Young believes the survey can serve as a reference for "the real probability distribution of AGI risk among domain experts."

2026-09-15 ~ 2026-09-15 · 5 related posts

• [source] 2024 survey: 10% AI extinction risk is normal among 1,580 AI researchers — NathanpmYoung · 2026-09-15
• AI Researchers Put ~18% Probability on AI Causing Human Extinction, Survey Finds — NathanpmYoung · 2026-09-15
• [source] Expert surveys show AI timelines shrinking fast and extinction concerns rising — KatjaGrace · 2026-09-15
• [source] Largest AI researcher survey charts rising concern about catastrophic risk over one year — KatjaGrace · 2026-09-15

1 near-duplicate retellings: NathanpmYoung