Debate Rekindled: Do Half of AI Researchers Really See 10% Extinction Risk?
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-09-15
NathanpmYoung and Melanie Mitchell clash over the widely cited claim that half of AI researchers give at least 10% odds of human extinction from AI. Mitchell previously fact-checked the 2022 AI Impacts survey behind NYT/Vox/New Yorker citations; Young concedes goodwill but maintains the finding is robust, estimating the true median at 5-20% even under ideal interviews.
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