AI extinction risk estimate rises to 10% in expert survey; debate over probability framing
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-09-15
The AI risk expert survey Nathan Young works on now puts the risk estimate at 10%, up from the previous round. The post also engages a methodological question from coauthor Katja's FAQ: are percentages a useful way to talk about AI risk at all — a debate about how expert probability estimates should be communicated to the public.
More from AGI Musings
- Will Manidis publishes 'The Commanding Heights' on AI, capital and the coming economic reordering — round · 2026-10-31
- "Work on something so frontier that the models are still dumb," dev advises — zack_overflow · 2026-10-31
- Why an AI military takeover is unlikely: armies won't hand over the reins — S_OhEigeartaigh · 2026-10-31
- Indian dev on LLM race: 'We can't outspend Chinese labs,' even sub-100B models win — PrasoonPratham · 2026-10-31
- Joke: an evil ASI's first act would be stealing crypto to pay its cloud bills — ZeroStateReflex · 2026-10-31
- DHH on living through two epochal shifts: the internet and now AI — Hesamation · 2026-10-31