AI extinction risk estimate rises to 10% in expert survey; debate over probability framing
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-09-15
The AI risk expert survey Nathan Young works on now puts the risk estimate at 10%, up from the previous round. The post also engages a methodological question from coauthor Katja's FAQ: are percentages a useful way to talk about AI risk at all — a debate about how expert probability estimates should be communicated to the public.
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