Expert surveys show AI timelines shrinking fast and extinction concerns rising
KatjaGrace · x · 2026-09-15
KatjaGrace summarizes trends from her long-running surveys of AI researchers, mirroring what she hears from people in the field:
- AI is advancing much faster than researchers expected: timelines to human-level AI have shrunk rapidly.
- Catastrophic risk concerns are rising: most researchers have long seen major extinction-level risks, and concern has been trending upward recently.
Her surveys have run since 2016, allowing tracking of how expert opinion has moved over the years.
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