Expert surveys show AI timelines shrinking fast and extinction concerns rising
KatjaGrace · x · 2026-09-15
KatjaGrace summarizes trends from her long-running surveys of AI researchers, mirroring what she hears from people in the field:
- AI is advancing much faster than researchers expected: timelines to human-level AI have shrunk rapidly.
- Catastrophic risk concerns are rising: most researchers have long seen major extinction-level risks, and concern has been trending upward recently.
Her surveys have run since 2016, allowing tracking of how expert opinion has moved over the years.
More from AGI Musings
- Thom Wolf clashes with researcher over whether AI labs are only profit-driven — mervenoyann · 2026-09-15
- Researcher joins Stanford DigEconLab to simulate the economy with AI agents — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-09-15
- A 5-minute video of AI extinction without rogue AI: humans hand over control one step at a time — ronbodkin · 2026-09-15
- Survey methodology fight: is 'AI might kill us all' a majority view or a slanted poll? — beenwrekt · 2026-09-15
- Microsoft's AI-consciousness stance called incoherent, traced back to Suleyman's 'seemingly conscious AI' post — rgblong · 2026-09-15
- "The Biggest AI Engineering Breakthrough Is Financial Engineering" — michellechen · 2026-09-15