Open-Weight Models Hit Record 78.4% of Tokens on Vercel AI Gateway

Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch disclosed that open-weight models accounted for a record 78.4% of daily token volume on Vercel AI Gateway, versus 21.6% for closed models. Shares were widely circulated and discussed as fresh evidence that open models are penetrating production traffic.

Confirmed

• Daily open-weight token share of 78.4% vs. 21.6% closed (gateway data shared by Rauch, relayed by @GaryMarcus, @charlesirl and others)
• Per @SumitGup, open models were around 40% in June, nearly doubling in three months; DeepSeek V4.1 Flash alone accounted for 59.3% of gateway token volume
• By spend, open models collectively exceeded OpenAI for the top position; Moonshot AI and DeepSeek ranked 3rd and 4th by daily spend, and together with Z.ai the three open-model providers led overall
• Vercel published its AI Gateway Production Index report for September 2026 (relayed by @cramforce, based on tens of trillions of tokens routed monthly between production apps and AI labs), showing open-weight models at 56% of production token volume, with Astro among the cited data points
• Polymarket also cited and amplified the record 78.4% figure

Unconfirmed

• Whether the single-day 78.4% is sustainable or a record peak; the monthly figure of 56% shows a notable gap

Why it matters

• Commenters such as @GaryMarcus and @charlesirl noted token volume and spend are different measures, yet both show open-model share rising sharply
• In a post relayed by @markjeffrey, Chamath predicted the top three models will all be open within 12 months, with cloud providers carrying the data as winners, naming Nebius, Baseten, Together and Fireworks as inference infrastructure beneficiaries

2026-09-19 ~ 2026-09-21 · 10 related posts

Full story(3 episodes)→

• Episode 1: Open-Weight Models Hit Record 78.4% of Tokens on Vercel AI Gateway(2026-09-19, 10 posts)
• Episode 2: Open-Source Models Hit Record 78.4% of Token Volume on Vercel AI Gateway(2026-09-21, 5 posts)
• Episode 3: Open-Source Models at ~10% of AI Revenue? Analysis Slammed as Outdated(2026-09-21, 6 posts)

• [source] Open-weight models now take 56% of production token volume, per Vercel index — cramforce · 2026-09-19
• [source] Open models hit record 78.4% of token volume on Vercel AI Gateway; Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai spend beats OpenAI — charles_irl · 2026-09-19
• Open models hit 78% of Vercel token volume; Chamath predicts top 3 models will be open source — markjeffrey · 2026-09-20
• [source] Open-weight models hit 78.4% of token volume on Vercel's gateway, up from ~40% in June — SumitGup · 2026-09-20
• Open-source AI models hit record 78.4% of token volume on Vercel's AI Gateway — Polymarket · 2026-09-20
• Open models hit 78.4% of Vercel AI Gateway tokens; DeepSeek and Moonshot spend top OpenAI — realmeetjames · 2026-09-21

4 near-duplicate retellings: soumitrashukla9 · GaryMarcus · markjeffrey · SumitGup