Open models hit 78% of Vercel token volume; Chamath predicts top 3 models will be open source

markjeffrey · x · 2026-09-20

Chamath predicts the top three models will all be open source within 12 months, with American clouds as the economic winners (Nebius, Baseten, Together, Fireworks).

Quoted data from rauchj: open models hit a record 78.4% of token volume on Vercel AI Gateway; by spend, Moonshot AI and DeepSeek are #3 and #4, and together with Z.ai their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2) — noting that's inference spend across providers, not revenue to open-weight labs.

Related event: Vercel Gateway data shows open-weight models hit record 78.4% of token traffic(7 posts)→

Original post →

More from Venture

Venture channel →