Open-Source Models at ~10% of AI Revenue? Analysis Slammed as Outdated

KonstantinPilz published an estimate claiming open-source models accounted for only 10% of global AI revenue as of September 2026, with OpenAI, Anthropic and other closed-source vendors taking the vast majority, implying serious software engineering still relies mostly on closed models. The analysis spread widely but was challenged the same day by multiple posters, led by GutenLeinad and xeophon, for relying on badly outdated data.

Confirmed

• Core figure of the original analysis: open-source models at 10% of global AI revenue, closed-source vendors dominant, data as of September 2026.
• The analysis covered open-model providers TogetherAI, Fireworks, Baseten and OpenRouter with July-August revenue shares (per max16065).
• GutenLeinad argued the analysis used data from Q1 or even earlier, while actual growth far exceeded what its charts showed.
• xeophon cited specifics: TogetherAI's token volume grew over 10x from Q1 to Q2, Fireworks roughly 3x, with Baseten and other inference providers also growing significantly.
• xeophon argued "tokenmaxxing" concerns product forms like Claude Code and Codex rather than open-source usage, and may even accelerate open-source revenue as routers like Databricks grow more important.

Unconfirmed

• The true revenue and usage share of open-source models under updated data; neither side offered a corrected full estimate.
• The direction of tokenmaxxing and router growth's impact on open-source revenue remains xeophon's view, not a data-verified conclusion.

Why it matters

• The dispute centers on whether the basis for judging the market landscape is sound: if open-source inference volumes grew tenfold within months, inferring "open-source is only 10%" from stale data could systematically understate the open-source camp's momentum, affecting developer choices, enterprise procurement and investment decisions.

2026-09-21 ~ 2026-09-21 · 6 related posts

Full story(3 episodes)→

• Episode 1: Open-Weight Models Hit Record 78.4% of Tokens on Vercel AI Gateway(2026-09-19, 10 posts)
• Episode 2: Open-Source Models Hit Record 78.4% of Token Volume on Vercel AI Gateway(2026-09-21, 5 posts)
• Episode 3: Open-Source Models at ~10% of AI Revenue? Analysis Slammed as Outdated(2026-09-21, 6 posts)

• [source] Open models are ~10% of AI revenue, but the analysis used badly outdated data — xeophon · 2026-09-21
• Open model revenue analysis uses stale Q1 data: TogetherAI tokens up 10x, CRWV beats them all combined — xeophon · 2026-09-21
• [source] Analyst's AI market data outdated: TogetherAI tokens up 10x from Q1 to Q2 — xeophon · 2026-09-21
• [source] Open model inference is booming: TogetherAI tokens grew 10x from Q1 to Q2, analysis used stale data — GutenLeinad · 2026-09-21
• Tokenmaxxing debate: routers may accelerate open model revenue, says xeophon — xeophon · 2026-09-21
• Open model providers' revenue data badly outdated: TogetherAI tokens up 10x+ since Q1 — max16065 · 2026-09-21