LEAP expert panel puts just 10% odds on AI helping solve a Millennium Prize problem by 2027
The Forecasting Research Institute released the second wave of its LEAP (Longitudinal Expert AI Panel) "AI for Science" report, aggregating forecasts made in August–September 2025 by 277 AI experts, 58 superforecasters, and 1022 members of the public. The headline finding: roughly a 10% probability that AI will independently or substantially help solve a Millennium Prize problem by 2027, signaling expert caution about near-term AI breakthroughs in pure mathematics — a judgment now being tested by actual AI progress.
Confirmed
- The LEAP panel of AI experts and superforecasters put a 10% probability on AI independently or substantially helping solve a Millennium Prize problem before 2027.
- Some experts cited a June 2025 statement by the Clay Mathematics Institute president that AI remains far from contributing substantively to problems like the Riemann Hypothesis or P vs NP.
- The report also included forecasts from a 1022-person public sample as a comparison group.
- Post materials differ on timing: most recaps describe a "November 2025 panel," while the original report aggregation indicates forecasts were collected in August–September 2025, with November marking the release of results.
Why it matters
- The low 10% figure highlighted by sharers such as @Afinetheorem and @soumitrashukla9 reflects experts' cautious expectations for short-term AI breakthroughs in frontier pure mathematics.
- Ethan Mollick (shared by @eldonredwards) counters that AI progress is already outpacing even top forecasters' expectations, underscoring the tension between forecasting methodology and the pace of AI capability gains — a gap worth tracking.
2026-09-09 ~ 2026-09-10 · 6 related posts
- Episode 1: LEAP expert panel puts just 10% odds on AI helping solve a Millennium Prize problem by 2027(2026-09-09, 6 posts)
- Episode 2: AI Solves Millennium Problem Far Ahead of Expert Forecasts(2026-09-11, 4 posts)
- Episode 3: OpenAI's Navier-Stokes result beats expert forecasts by ~30 years(2026-09-16, 6 posts)
Primary sources
- LEAP panel of AI experts and superforecasters gives just 10% odds of AI solving a Millennium Problem by 2027 — Afinetheorem · 2026-09-09
- [source] LEAP expert panel puts just 10% odds on AI cracking a Millennium Problem by 2027 — Afinetheorem · 2026-09-09
- AI outpacing expert forecasters: LEAP panel gave just 10% odds of solving a Millennium Problem by 2027 — eldonredwards · 2026-09-09
- [source] Experts gave a 10% chance AI solves or substantially aids a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027 — Majestic_Lie_7509 · 2026-09-10
2 near-duplicate retellings: Afinetheorem · soumitrashukla9