LEAP expert panel puts just 10% odds on AI cracking a Millennium Problem by 2027
Afinetheorem · x · 2026-09-09
The Forecasting Research Institute released Wave 2 of its Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) report on AI for Science, aggregating forecasts from 277 experts, 58 superforecasters, and 1,022 members of the public collected between Aug 18 and Sep 15, 2025.
Key results:
- Millennium Prize Problems: Experts put only 10% probability on AI solving or substantially assisting with a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027; one expert cites the Clay Institute president's June 2025 claim that "we're very far away from AI being able to say anything serious about any of those problems."
- Diffusion of AI across sciences: forecasts for the share of Physics, Materials Science, and Medicine publications that will be 'AI-engaged' in 2030.
- Drug discovery: forecast shares of US recently-approved drug sales from AI-discovered drugs in 2027, 2030, and 2040.
- Electricity consumption: forecast US power consumption for training and deploying AI in 2027, 2030, and 2040.
- Cognitive limitations: what share of experts will agree, by end of 2030, that various shortcomings are serious limitations of state-of-the-art AI.
The report offers a systematic quantitative baseline for expectations about AI's scientific capabilities.
Related event: Experts put 10% odds on AI solving Millennium Problems by 2027(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- AI needs a high-visibility biology win like cancer, not another benchmark, argues poster — flowersslop · 2026-09-09
- Mozilla CTO makes the case for owning your AI, not renting it, on Open Commons podcast — 0xsachi · 2026-09-09
- "Math Is Solved" Claim Sparks Pushback: Solved Problems Unlock Endless New Open Ones — burny_tech · 2026-09-09
- CSET's Helen Toner: the term AGI is becoming useless as different camps mean entirely different tipping points — hlntnr · 2026-09-09
- $22.5M of Compute in One Week: The New Price Tag for Math Breakthroughs — vykthur · 2026-09-09
- Navier-Stokes solve points to labs quietly reserving frontier capability, says dev — idanbeck · 2026-09-09