FULL STORY
From Polymarket Bets to OpenAI's Rumored Hodge Conjecture Breakthrough
Polymarket opened contracts betting an AI lab will announce a Millennium Prize Problem solution, with odds near 72% despite Fields medalists' warnings. The Information then reported OpenAI is close to cracking the Hodge conjecture, pushing odds to 57%.
2026-09-09 ~ 2026-09-19 · 3 episodes · 11 posts
Episode 1 · Polymarket opens bets on AI labs solving Millennium Prize problems (2026-09-09, 4 posts)
Polymarket launched markets betting on which AI lab will announce solving a Millennium Prize Problem, pricing OpenAI at 54% by Sept 2026 and 63% by year-end, with 64% odds over Anthropic in a head-to-head; a meme post claims solutions already exist yet are priced at only 10%.
- Two groups solved a Millennium Prize Problem, yet Polymarket prices it at just 10% — arthurcolle · 2026-09-09
- Polymarket opens book on AI labs solving Millennium Prize Problems, 69% odds by 2027 — Polymarket · 2026-09-09
- Polymarket opens race: OpenAI at 64% to solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Anthropic — Polymarket · 2026-09-10
- Polymarket Opens Bets on OpenAI Solving Another Millennium Prize Problem This Month at 54% — Polymarket · 2026-09-11
Episode 2 · Polymarket odds hit 72% for AI solving another Millennium Prize problem in 2026 (2026-09-12, 3 posts)
After 25 Fields Medalists issued a joint warning, Polymarket now prices a 72% chance that AI labs will announce another Millennium Prize problem solved by end of 2026, rising to 89% by end of 2027. The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is seen as the most likely target.
- Polymarket odds hit 71% that an AI lab announces a Millennium Prize solution this year — Polymarket · 2026-09-12
- Polymarket puts 72% odds on an AI lab solving a Millennium Prize problem by end of 2026 — Polymarket · 2026-09-12
- Polymarket Puts 72% Odds on AI Cracking a Millennium Problem in 2026 — saln1 · 2026-09-12
Episode 3 · OpenAI Reportedly Near Solving Hodge Conjecture as Polymarket Odds Hit 57% (2026-09-17, 4 posts)
The Information reports OpenAI is close to solving the Hodge Conjecture, its second Millennium Prize Problem, while Polymarket traders price the odds at 57% with P vs NP below 1%.
- Polymarket bets put 35% odds on AI solving the Hodge Conjecture by end of 2026 — Polymarket · 2026-09-17
- Polymarket puts 57% odds on AI solving the Hodge Conjecture — Polymarket · 2026-09-18
- Polymarket odds: 57% chance AI solves the Hodge Conjecture next, P vs NP under 1% — Polymarket · 2026-09-18
- OpenAI reportedly close to cracking the Hodge Conjecture, its second Millennium Prize target — _arohan_ · 2026-09-19