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GPT-6 Astra Sparks AGI Bets on Polymarket
After OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra and hinted at early-stage AGI, Polymarket odds of an official AGI declaration by year-end rose to around 19–24%, with trading volume climbing above $200K.
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-09 · 2 episodes · 6 posts
Episode 1 · Polymarket odds of OpenAI declaring AGI this year jump to 19% after GPT-6 (2026-09-04, 3 posts)
After OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra and suggested it may represent an early stage of AGI, Polymarket odds of OpenAI officially declaring AGI by end of 2026 surged to 19%, with about $104K traded, though most bettors remain skeptical.
- Polymarket: only 19% odds OpenAI declares AGI by year-end despite GPT-6 launch — Polymarket · 2026-09-04
- Polymarket odds of OpenAI officially achieving AGI by year-end surge to 19% after GPT-6 Astra release — Polymarket · 2026-09-04
- GPT-6 Astra Launch Sends Polymarket's OpenAI-AGI-By-Year-End Odds to 19% — Polymarket · 2026-09-04
Episode 2 · Polymarket Puts About 1-in-4 Odds on OpenAI Declaring AGI This Year (2026-09-07, 3 posts)
After the Navier-Stokes breakthrough news, Polymarket's odds on OpenAI officially declaring AGI by end of 2026 rose from about 19% to roughly 23-24%, with volume exceeding $209,000, though the contract lacks a consensus AGI definition.
- Polymarket gives OpenAI declaring AGI this year just 19% odds despite AGI-era talk — Polymarket · 2026-09-07
- Polymarket Puts ~24% Odds on OpenAI Announcing AGI by Year-End Amid No Consensus Definition — Polymarket · 2026-09-08
- Polymarket Odds of OpenAI Declaring AGI by Year-End Hit 22% After Navier–Stokes Breakthrough — Polymarket · 2026-09-09