Polymarket: only 19% odds OpenAI declares AGI by year-end despite GPT-6 launch
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-04
After OpenAI unveiled GPT-6 Astra, claiming it may represent "early stages of AGI," Polymarket still gives just 19% odds that OpenAI officially announces achieving AGI by end of 2026, with over $104K in volume. Traders cite self-defined AGI criteria, safety testing pauses, and leadership framing of internal milestones as barriers.
Related event: Polymarket odds of OpenAI declaring AGI this year jump to 19% after GPT-6(3 posts)→
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