Polymarket gives OpenAI declaring AGI this year just 19% odds despite AGI-era talk
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-07
- Polymarket assigns only a 19% chance that OpenAI officially announces it has achieved AGI by December 31, 2026, with roughly $179K traded on the contract.
- Despite GPT-6 Astra's September launch and Greg Brockman's "AGI era" remarks, OpenAI avoids binary public claims; traders see Altman's statements as gradual positioning, and safety incidents involving autonomous agent behavior push the implied "No" probability to 81.5%.
Related event: Polymarket Puts About 1-in-4 Odds on OpenAI Declaring AGI This Year(3 posts)→
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