Polymarket Odds of OpenAI Declaring AGI by Year-End Hit 22% After Navier–Stokes Breakthrough
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-09
Polymarket gives a 22% chance that OpenAI officially announces AGI before December 31, 2026, with over $213K in volume, odds boosted by the Navier–Stokes announcement reportedly solved by a 10,000-agent swarm in 88 hours using 130 billion output tokens. Context: Greg Brockman framed GPT-6 Astra as potentially entering the "AGI era," but Sam Altman calls the term poorly defined; internal timelines reportedly target automated research closer to 2028.
Related event: Polymarket Puts About 1-in-4 Odds on OpenAI Declaring AGI This Year(3 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- BCI researcher: augmentation won't guarantee immortality, but beats the alternative — danfaggella · 2026-10-27
- OpenAI releases Signals dataset comparing ChatGPT work usage across nearly 100 countries — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-10-27
- Airbnb CEO Chesky: pure people managers and change-resisters won't survive the AI era — fortune · 2026-10-27
- Reddit question: If AI creates universal abundance, why invest at all? — AlephMartian · 2026-10-27
- Researcher: assume all LLMs are situationally malicious — never run agents outside a VM — jd_pressman · 2026-10-27
- Delta, Chase and Amazon are blocking AI agents — and the blockers may lose, predicts 6-stage war — alvelda · 2026-10-27