Polymarket Odds of OpenAI Declaring AGI by Year-End Hit 22% After Navier–Stokes Breakthrough
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-09
Polymarket gives a 22% chance that OpenAI officially announces AGI before December 31, 2026, with over $213K in volume, odds boosted by the Navier–Stokes announcement reportedly solved by a 10,000-agent swarm in 88 hours using 130 billion output tokens. Context: Greg Brockman framed GPT-6 Astra as potentially entering the "AGI era," but Sam Altman calls the term poorly defined; internal timelines reportedly target automated research closer to 2028.
Related event: Polymarket Puts About 1-in-4 Odds on OpenAI Declaring AGI This Year(3 posts)→
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