FULL STORY
Thinking Machines in Talks at $40B Valuation
Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab is reportedly raising a fresh round with Nvidia poised to invest billions at a valuation of up to $40 billion, per The Information.
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-07 · 2 episodes · 14 posts
Episode 1 · Thinking Machines in Talks for $1B+ Raise at $40B Valuation, NVIDIA Weighs Multi-Billion Investment (2026-09-04, 9 posts)
Multiple The Information reporters reveal that Thinking Machines Lab, founded by Mira Murati, is in talks to raise over $1 billion at a pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion, with Accel discussing the lead. Follow-up reporting indicates the round is near closing and NVIDIA is negotiating to invest $2.5–3 billion, potentially becoming a major backer.
Confirmed
- Steph Palazzolo first disclosed the $40 billion valuation and $1B+ raise; colleague amir reported NVIDIA's $2.5–3 billion negotiation (sourced from a16z); reporter Paula Vapadapu reported the round is close to completion with substantial NVIDIA funding
- Round size of at least $1 billion, pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion
- Accel in discussions to lead
- NVIDIA is already an investor and infrastructure partner
- The valuation is below the $50B+ figure floated last autumn
Unconfirmed
- All figures remain subject to negotiation; final terms are not settled
- A view circulated via ivanbezdomny that a $30 billion acquisition is not impossible — analysis, not fact
Why it matters
- Analysis relayed by ivanbezdomny argues that despite talent and founder departures, the company shipped a competitive frontier model, making it highly valuable; its earlier fundraising struggles appear reversed thanks to NVIDIA's backing
- A $2.5–3 billion NVIDIA investment would rank among the largest single corporate checks in AI startup financing, underscoring that frontier model capability remains the market's key pricing factor
- Mira Murati's Thinking Machines in talks to raise $1b+ at $40b+ valuation — steph_palazzolo · 2026-09-04
- Murati's Thinking Machines in talks to raise $1B at $40B pre-money valuation — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-04
- Thinking Machines Lab in talks to raise $1B+ at $40B+ valuation, per The Information — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-04
- Thinking Machines in talks to raise $1B+ at ~$40B valuation, below $50B target — ivan_bezdomny · 2026-09-04
- Thinking Machines eyes $40B valuation as NVIDIA's $50B M&A spree lifts AI premiums — ivan_bezdomny · 2026-09-04
- VC math: Cursor deal looks great for SpaceXAI, Thinky still worth a $30B+ acquihire — ivan_bezdomny · 2026-09-04
- Nvidia in Talks to Put $2.5B-$3B into Thinking Machines Lab at ~$40B Valuation — steph_palazzolo · 2026-09-04
- Thinking Machines Lab Closing $40B Round, Potentially With Lots of Nvidia Money — steph_palazzolo · 2026-09-04
- Thinking Machines reportedly raising ~$1B at a $40B valuation — emmanuelvivier · 2026-09-05
Episode 2 · Nvidia Reportedly in Talks to Lead Thinking Machines Round at $40B+ Valuation (2026-09-07, 5 posts)
Per The Information, Thinking Machines Lab — founded by former OpenAI exec Mira Murati less than two years ago — is in talks to raise $5–6 billion at a pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion, with Nvidia potentially contributing $2.5–3 billion as lead investor.
Confirmed
- The Information reported the talks (relayed by The Next Web and multiple bloggers): a $5–6B round at a $40B+ pre-money valuation.
- Nvidia is reportedly committing around $2.5B, possibly $2.5–3B per 新智元, as lead investor.
- The company pushes open-weight models as a rival to OpenAI and Anthropic; its valuation has tripled in roughly 14 months per 新智元.
Unconfirmed
- The deal remains at the negotiation stage; final amounts, valuation and completion are not official.
Why it matters
- If closed, it marks another major Nvidia bet on an OpenAI rival, and a $40B+ valuation for a sub-two-year-old startup underscores the premium on open-weight strategies and star teams.
- Notably, Jensen Huang recently claimed OpenAI has achieved AGI while Nvidia invests billions in a competitor — read by @SimplyAnnisa and @eyishazyer as a hedging play.
- Nvidia reportedly in talks for $2.5B bet on Thinking Machines Lab at ~$40B valuation — kimmonismus · 2026-09-07
- Nvidia reportedly negotiating $2.5B investment into Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab — eyishazyer · 2026-09-07
- Huang says OpenAI hit AGI while Nvidia eyes $2.5B into rival Mira Murati's TML — SimplyAnnisa · 2026-09-07
- Nvidia in talks to invest up to $3B in Thinking Machines Lab at $40B+ pre-money valuation — 新智元 · 2026-09-07
- Thinking Machines Lab reportedly raising $5-6B at $40B+ valuation, Nvidia half — mark_k · 2026-09-07