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Thinking Machines in Talks at $40B Valuation

Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab is reportedly raising a fresh round with Nvidia poised to invest billions at a valuation of up to $40 billion, per The Information.

2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-07 · 2 episodes · 14 posts

Episode 1 · Thinking Machines in Talks for $1B+ Raise at $40B Valuation, NVIDIA Weighs Multi-Billion Investment (2026-09-04, 9 posts)

Multiple The Information reporters reveal that Thinking Machines Lab, founded by Mira Murati, is in talks to raise over $1 billion at a pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion, with Accel discussing the lead. Follow-up reporting indicates the round is near closing and NVIDIA is negotiating to invest $2.5–3 billion, potentially becoming a major backer.

Confirmed

  • Steph Palazzolo first disclosed the $40 billion valuation and $1B+ raise; colleague amir reported NVIDIA's $2.5–3 billion negotiation (sourced from a16z); reporter Paula Vapadapu reported the round is close to completion with substantial NVIDIA funding
  • Round size of at least $1 billion, pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion
  • Accel in discussions to lead
  • NVIDIA is already an investor and infrastructure partner
  • The valuation is below the $50B+ figure floated last autumn

Unconfirmed

  • All figures remain subject to negotiation; final terms are not settled
  • A view circulated via ivanbezdomny that a $30 billion acquisition is not impossible — analysis, not fact

Why it matters

  • Analysis relayed by ivanbezdomny argues that despite talent and founder departures, the company shipped a competitive frontier model, making it highly valuable; its earlier fundraising struggles appear reversed thanks to NVIDIA's backing
  • A $2.5–3 billion NVIDIA investment would rank among the largest single corporate checks in AI startup financing, underscoring that frontier model capability remains the market's key pricing factor

Episode 2 · Nvidia in Talks to Lead $2.5-3B Investment in Murati's Thinking Machines at $40B+ Valuation (2026-09-07, 5 posts)

According to a report by The Information, relayed by multiple bloggers, Thinking Machines Lab—founded by former OpenAI co-founder Mira Murati—is in talks for a new funding round of $5 billion to $6 billion at a pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion, with Nvidia potentially leading with $2.5 billion to $3 billion on its own. The deal is still in the negotiation stage and not finalized, but the valuation growth and the investor's identity have already sparked wide discussion.

Confirmed

  • The source is The Information's report (relayed by The Next Web and others): Thinking Machines Lab is negotiating $5 billion to $6 billion in new financing at a pre-money valuation of at least $40 billion
  • Nvidia plans to invest $2.5 billion, with 新智元 (New Zhiyuan) reporting it could reach $2.5 billion to $3 billion as lead investor
  • The company is less than two years old, focuses on open-weight models, and competes with OpenAI and Anthropic; per 新智元, its valuation has tripled in about 14 months

Unconfirmed

  • Both the funding and Nvidia's investment remain in the negotiation stage; final amounts, valuation, and whether the deal closes are all unannounced

Why it matters

  • If the deal goes through, it would be another major Nvidia bet on an OpenAI competitor, and a valuation of at least $40 billion for a company under two years old reflects the premium currently placed on the open-weight approach and star teams in the AI funding frenzy
  • Noteworthy backdrop: Jensen Huang recently said publicly that OpenAI has achieved AGI, while Nvidia is simultaneously pouring billions into an OpenAI rival—a move several bloggers (e.g., @SimplyAnnisa, @eyishazyer) read as a hedging play