Scott Alexander: AI superforecaster puts global-pause odds bump from Anthropic exit at 16%→19%
peterbhase · x · 2026-11-02
Scott Alexander argues that alignment-pillied people and companies quitting in protest amounts to setting hopes for survival on fire for attention — a move you'd only endorse after extremely careful analysis he hasn't seen. As a rough start, he asked an "AI superforecaster": Anthropic disbanding immediately to raise pause awareness would increase global-pause probability by just three points, from 16% to 19%.
Related event: Scott Alexander's AI Superforecaster Pause Odds Draw Criticism(2 posts)→
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