Scott Alexander's AI Superforecaster Pause Odds Draw Criticism

Scott Alexander used an AI superforecaster to estimate that dissolving Anthropic would raise the odds of a global AI pause by only 3 percentage points, drawing criticism from the community over the methodology and numbers.

2026-11-02 ~ 2026-11-02 · 2 related posts

• Scott Alexander: AI superforecaster puts global-pause odds bump from Anthropic exit at 16%→19% — peterbhase · 2026-11-02
• Scott Alexander's AI superforecaster says Anthropic quitting lifts global-pause odds just 16%→19% — peterbhase · 2026-11-02