Scott Alexander's AI superforecaster says Anthropic quitting lifts global-pause odds just 16%→19%
peterbhase · x · 2026-11-02
peterbhase mocks Rationalist argumentation: Scott Alexander, lacking careful analysis of whether alignment-field exits make a global AI pause likelier, substituted intuition and consulted an "AI superforecaster." It estimated Anthropic disbanding itself for awareness would raise global-pause probability only from 16% to 19%. The kicker is Scott's own footnote: "don't take these numbers too seriously except as a very rough order of magnitude guess."
Related event: Scott Alexander's AI Superforecaster Pause Odds Draw Criticism(2 posts)→
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