Toby Ord: AI timeline forecasts are hard to judge as they assume no substantial slowdown
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-12
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord responds to a table of AI timeline forecasts shared by David Manheim: it's a good source for some forecasters (though not all, e.g. Ryan or Ajeya), but the forecasts are conditional on no substantial pacing or slowdown — a condition Ord believes won't hold, making the predictions hard to interpret.
Related event: Leaked AI Timeline Forecasts Cluster Around 2027-2028(2 posts)→
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