AI timeline forecasters' odds revealed: TED-AI medians cluster in 2027-2028, p by EO2027 up to 65%
davidmanheim · x · 2026-11-11
A leaked/compiled forecast table shows six AI timeline forecasters (Eli, Brendan, Daniel, Lukas, Thomas, Romeo) placing SAR medians between May and Nov 2027, TED-AI medians between Sep 2027 and Sep 2028, and p(TED-AI by EO2027) ranging from 35% to 65% — Daniel being most bullish at 65% with a Sep 2027 median. The surrounding discussion: forecasters use probabilities in the 1/3–2/3 range, so a failed guess would be a minor update against their reliability, not 'discrediting' — and they could be more explicit about their probabilities to avoid misinterpretation.
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