Gavin Baker: Open-Source Models to Dominate Token Share, Duopoly Would Hurt Industry

Investor Gavin Baker argues that open-weight models will capture the majority of tokens and a model-layer duopoly would harm nearly everyone. He notes enterprises can post-train specialized open models at about 40% of frontier-model cost, and B200 clusters still offer 37% IRR.

2026-10-14 ~ 2026-10-14 · 3 related posts

• Gavin Baker: open-weight tokens will dominate, B200 clusters still yield 37% IRR — GavinSBaker · 2026-10-14
• Model-layer duopoly by OpenAI and Anthropic would hurt everyone else, says investor — GavinSBaker · 2026-10-14
• Gavin Baker: post-trained open models plus router deliver frontier performance at 40% cost — GavinSBaker · 2026-10-14