Gavin Baker: open-weight tokens will dominate, B200 clusters still yield 37% IRR
GavinSBaker · x · 2026-10-14
Investor Gavin Baker lays out his case for a hybrid, multi-model AI future where 'everyone can win':
- Open-weight tokens will likely be the overwhelming majority of tokens, yet frontier labs still do well; lower model-layer margins mechanically drive higher compute demand, with Jensen Huang as 'trainer of last resort.'
- Per 3Fourteen Research data, B200 clusters generate a 37% IRR even if rental prices decline 40% per year — math that 'should get funded' at scale.
- Anthropic's $413B contractual commitments work out to $31B/year of cloud spend (internally financeable given its ARR) plus $161B at Broadcom financed by Broadcom and private credit; external financing may be near peak.
- Fragmentation at the model layer is the best outcome; anything slowing the buildout is net positive since a real overbuild is the worst case — and the world is structurally short watts, wafers and capital. He sees a major cyber event as the most plausible near-term bear case.
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