B200 GPU rents up 31% YTD while most AI infra IRR models assume declines
AccBalanced · x · 2026-10-15
- Gavin Baker argues for a hybrid multi-model future where almost everyone wins: open-weight tokens dominate volume, frontier labs still thrive with lower margins, and infrastructure plus applications benefit from fragmentation and competition.
- Warren Pies flags the key variable: nearly all IRR calculations assume GPU rents decline, yet the SiliconData B200 on-demand rental index is up 31% YTD, with hyperscaler cloud revenue estimates ramping (+14.5% 2026, +25.6% 2027, +35.6% 2028). If rents keep rising, the math on AI capex looks wildly different.
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