Anthropic may never report ARR again, says investor as open-source outgrows both AI leaders
GavinSBaker · x · 2026-10-15
Investor Gavin Baker argues Anthropic will likely stop reporting ARR — a healthy shift toward tracking hyperscaler growth rates, which better capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and open-source. Key points:
- Anthropic turned FCF-positive in Q3 and reaccelerated in October on Opus 5.5, with better-than-expected unit economics despite 75% of compute going to training.
- OpenAI is growing at the same pace and could turn FCF-positive within months; combined growth of the two leaders is accelerating.
- Open-source is growing much faster than either: Modal tripled since May (15x YoY), and open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens.
- Hyperscaler acceleration should continue into Q4/Q1 as compute reprices toward spot, easing external funding concerns.
- Biggest risks: cyber threats and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer; fragmentation there benefits everyone else. 'Slower for longer' beats an actual bubble.
Related event: Baker vs Zitron: How Real Is the Trillion-Dollar AI Compute Commitment(12 posts)→
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