Epoch AI: Cost of Equivalent AI Performance Falls 47% Per Quarter
Epoch AI released the report "The Plunging Price of Thought," estimating that the cost of AI at a given performance level has dropped about 47% per quarter since 2023—roughly 13x per year, and about 725x over 18 months—making AI the fastest cost-declining transformative technology in history. The finding circulated widely among researchers and media.
Confirmed
- The report was authored by Epoch AI researchers David Roodman and Luke Emberson; the core finding is a 47% quarterly cost decline at fixed performance since 2023, about 13x per year
- Comparative speed: about 4x faster than DNA sequencing, 6x faster than compute (Moore's Law), 18x faster than lithium batteries, and faster than pre-1973 electricity
- Case studies cited: OpenAI o3's price on FrontierMath Tiers 1–3 and at 75% accuracy on GPQA Diamond dropped dramatically, corresponding to a 725x decline over 18 months
- APPSO highlighted the paradox: chips, power, and data centers are getting more expensive while the cost of AI doing equivalent tasks falls faster than perhaps any general-purpose technology
Why it matters
- If sustained, the 47% quarterly decline could rapidly lower the barrier to AI adoption across industries
- Quantified comparison with historic cost curves (sequencing, compute, batteries) offers a benchmark for assessing AI's macro impact
- Endorsement and spread by scholars like Ethan Mollick and Rishi Bommasani signals the finding has entered mainstream AI policy and economics discussions
2026-09-23 ~ 2026-09-24 · 13 related posts
- Episode 1: Epoch AI: Cost of Equivalent AI Performance Falls 47% Per Quarter(2026-09-23, 13 posts)
- Episode 2: Scholars Challenge Viral Chart Claiming 100,000x Drop in AI Prices(2026-09-23, 10 posts)
Primary sources
- AI costs fall 47% per quarter, 4x faster than DNA sequencing: Epoch AI — daveholtz · 2026-09-23
- [source] Epoch AI: The plunging price of thought — intelligence keeps getting radically cheaper — Proper_Actuary2907 · 2026-09-23
- Cost of intelligence falling 50% per quarter, 4x faster than DNA sequencing, says Epoch AI — Terminator857 · 2026-09-23
- AI Capability Costs Falling 47% Per Quarter, Faster Than Compute or DNA Sequencing — 141_1337 · 2026-09-23
- Same-performance AI costs fall ~47% per quarter, possibly faster than any tech in history — APPSO · 2026-09-24
8 near-duplicate retellings: Jsevillamol · kimmonismus · kimmonismus · anselm · emollick · IgorCarron · RishiBommasani · rohanpaul_ai