Epoch AI: cost of a given AI performance level falls ~13x per year
kimmonismus · x · 2026-09-23
Citing Epoch AI's report, kimmonismus highlights that the cost of achieving a given level of AI performance is falling roughly 13-fold per year — a 47% quarterly decline since 2023, faster than any transformative technology in history.
- OpenAI's o3 exceeded 25% on FrontierMath Tiers 1–3 at $0.55; about 18 months later GPT-5.6 Luna hit the same threshold for $0.0015.
- Price drops are steepest right after new capabilities appear: a 66% quarterly decline for newly achieved frontier performance across five benchmarks, slowing to 32% after two years.
- Epoch poses the trillion-dollar question: if AI companies collectively slow development, will prices fall more slowly too?
Related event: Epoch AI: Cost of Equivalent AI Performance Falls 47% Per Quarter(13 posts)→
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