Open models are ~10% of AI revenue, but the analysis used badly outdated data
xeophon · x · 2026-09-21
KonstantinPilz estimates open-weight models account for only 10% of global AI revenue as of Sep 2026, despite their traction on intermediaries like OpenRouter and Vercel, with closed providers like OpenAI and Anthropic dominating.
But xeophon shows the analysis relies on stale data: TogetherAI's token volume grew >10x from Q1 to Q2 (the article used Q1 figures), Fireworks 3x'd, Baseten is now as large as the other two, and OpenRouter >5x'd. The original author admitted it was a one-hour estimate built with Claude and may have missed sources — so open models' revenue share is likely understated.
Related event: Open-Source AI Revenue Analysis Called Outdated(2 posts)→
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