Open models are ~10% of AI revenue, but the analysis used badly outdated data
xeophon · x · 2026-09-21
KonstantinPilz estimates open-weight models account for only 10% of global AI revenue as of Sep 2026, despite their traction on intermediaries like OpenRouter and Vercel, with closed providers like OpenAI and Anthropic dominating.
But xeophon shows the analysis relies on stale data: TogetherAI's token volume grew >10x from Q1 to Q2 (the article used Q1 figures), Fireworks 3x'd, Baseten is now as large as the other two, and OpenRouter >5x'd. The original author admitted it was a one-hour estimate built with Claude and may have missed sources — so open models' revenue share is likely understated.
Related event: Open-Source Models at ~10% of AI Revenue? Analysis Slammed as Outdated(6 posts)→
More from Venture
- Clio Marks One Year Since $1B vLex Deal, Its Fastest-Growing AI Product Signs a Customer Every 12 Minutes — EJWalters · 2026-11-12
- UBTECH sells 400 U1 Pro humanoids to Yongda Auto in ~$10M deal — CyberRobooo · 2026-11-12
- Physician-founded AI companies on a tear: PathAI up to $1.05B, CounselHealth $625M cash — DrDatta_AIIMS · 2026-11-12
- DeepVest white paper: SEC FY2027 exams target AI tools advisors can't prove they tested — PtrPomorski · 2026-11-12
- YC-backed Sintropix launches AI-native ERP that closes books daily and files taxes worldwide — ycombinator · 2026-11-12
- Polymarket prices 28% odds of a state data center moratorium; Torus raises $500M — Polymarket · 2026-11-12