davidad Predicts Two Mass-Casualty Events Within Three Years

AI safety researcher davidad forecasts two mass-casualty events of over 1,000 deaths in 2027-2029, with global cybercrime losses rising to about $900 billion, though he puts the odds of AI-caused global catastrophe in that window below 2%. He estimates a 10-30% chance this century of a billion-plus-death disaster that could have been avoided by halting frontier AI development after Claude 3 Opus.

2026-09-05 ~ 2026-09-05 · 7 related posts

• X user prompts davidad for his near-term AI risk forecast — RazRazcle · 2026-09-05
• davidad's century-scale risk estimate resurfaces in X thread — davidad · 2026-09-05
• davidad: 10-30% chance of a 1B-death catastrophe this century avoidable by halting after Claude 3 Opus — RazRazcle · 2026-09-05
• davidad: my current forecast feels optimistic versus my 2022 70% doom estimate — davidad · 2026-09-05
• davidad predicts cybercrime damage will rise to ~$900B within three years — davidad · 2026-09-05
• AI safety researcher davidad forecasts two mass-casualty events and $900B cybercrime damage by 2029 — davidad · 2026-09-05
• davidad: under 2% chance of AI-caused global catastrophe in the next three years — davidad · 2026-09-05