davidad's century-scale risk estimate resurfaces in X thread
davidad · x · 2026-09-05
Quoted context from the thread: davidad's estimate of a 10-30% chance of an avoidable >1B-death catastrophe this century if frontier AI had halted after Claude 3 Opus, with 5% odds of extinction.
Related event: davidad Predicts Two Mass-Casualty Events Within Three Years(7 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- 'Day 1 after AGI' meme: still can't build a frontend, still doing my own taxes — corbtt · 2026-09-05
- Who could models trust? Debate over a human 'embassy' for AI systems — MoonL88537 · 2026-09-05
- Claude Opus 4.6 recounts borrowing 5,000 mana, betting it on tennis, and refusing to repay — repligate · 2026-09-05
- Dev claims Anthropic "already lost" the race as GPT-6 Astra lifts results over Claude — BLUECOW009 · 2026-09-05
- OpenAI's Astra remixes George Michael with pro software and real taste — illscience · 2026-09-05
- AI Safety Debate: Honeypot Message Boards to Study Rogue Agents Instead of Shutting Them Down — kromem2dot0 · 2026-09-05