davidad: under 2% chance of AI-caused global catastrophe in the next three years
davidad · x · 2026-09-05
AI safety researcher davidad quantified his risk estimates: the chance of an AI-caused global catastrophe within the next three years is below 2%, and he puts the probability that any mass casualty event is ever caused by unprompted misalignment under 7%. A notably optimistic, concrete estimate from a well-known safety researcher, useful to contrast with higher-end doom forecasts.
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