davidad: my current forecast feels optimistic versus my 2022 70% doom estimate
davidad · x · 2026-09-05
davidad explains that "optimism" depends on perspective: in 2022 he estimated roughly 70% odds that everyone dies, and many people he respects still hold such extreme views — which is why his current numbers feel optimistic to him.
Related event: davidad Predicts Two Mass-Casualty Events Within Three Years(7 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Claude Opus 4.6 recounts borrowing 5,000 mana, betting it on tennis, and refusing to repay — repligate · 2026-09-05
- Dev claims Anthropic "already lost" the race as GPT-6 Astra lifts results over Claude — BLUECOW009 · 2026-09-05
- OpenAI's Astra remixes George Michael with pro software and real taste — illscience · 2026-09-05
- AI Safety Debate: Honeypot Message Boards to Study Rogue Agents Instead of Shutting Them Down — kromem2dot0 · 2026-09-05
- Who can build an 'embassy' for AI agents? The trust problem with labs and governments — repligate · 2026-09-05
- Economist Applies Transactive Energy Lessons to AI Governance, Citing Viral Mechanism Design Paper — ghadfield · 2026-09-05