Micron Q4: Forecast to Blowout Earnings

Episode 1 · Tessara Predicts Micron Revenue to Smash Street High Estimates (2026-09-25, 4 posts)

Tessara's public research predicts Micron's fiscal Q4 revenue at $56.2 billion, beating the highest of 22 analyst estimates ($52.08B), while flagging long-term contract constraints and the DRAM pricing disclosure as its falsification test.

• Tessara predicts Micron Q3 revenue of $56.2B, beating the highest of 22 analyst estimates — tengyanAI · 2026-09-25
• Micron's long-term contracts cap memory price gains, but Tessara still models $52.1B revenue — tengyanAI · 2026-09-25
• Tessara's falsification test for its Micron call: watch DRAM price change on Sept 30 — tengyanAI · 2026-09-25
• Tessara publicly stakes that Micron's fiscal Q4 revenue will beat the Street's highest $52.08B estimate — tengyanAI · 2026-09-25

Episode 2 · Tessara Bets Micron Q4 Revenue Will Top $52 Billion (2026-09-29, 4 posts)

Tessara predicts an 80% chance Micron's Q4 revenue exceeds $52 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while flagging risks around pricing assumptions and a 14.7% DRAM price increase threshold.

• Tessara details why Micron's Q4 revenue will beat the Street's highest estimate — tengyanAI · 2026-09-29
• Tessara: 80% odds Micron's Q4 revenue tops $52B, beating every analyst estimate — tengyanAI · 2026-09-29
• Analyst: if Micron matches SK Hynix price capture, model drops to $51.10B, below threshold — tengyanAI · 2026-09-29
• Micron earnings preview: DRAM price growth above 14.7% signals within-quarter price hikes — tengyanAI · 2026-09-29

Episode 3 · Micron's FY26 Q4 Revenue Soars 379% to $54.2B, Guidance Beats Again (2026-10-01, 9 posts)

Micron reported FY2026 Q4 results that beat expectations across the board: revenue of $54.23 billion (vs. market expectations of about $51.07 billion / consensus $51.49 billion), up a stunning 379% year over year; adjusted EPS of $33.42 (vs. $31.61 expected); adjusted gross margin of 87.0% and operating margin of 82.3%. The Cloud Memory business led the way with $16.28 billion in revenue. AI compute demand is the core driver of this memory upcycle.

Confirmed

• Revenue of $54.23 billion beat expectations, up 379% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $33.42, gross margin of 87.0%, and operating margin of 82.3%
• Cloud Memory revenue came in at $16.28 billion
• On the earnings call, management said industry demand has strengthened further since last quarter, and memory and storage supply-demand will be "much tighter" in FY2027 and FY2028 than in FY2026, with FY2027 overall better than FY2026
• Gross margin guidance: FY2027 Q1 marks the gross margin trough, with sequential improvement thereafter; Q1 pressure stems mainly from the company booking increased FY2026 manufacturing-related incentive compensation into Q4 inventory costs, which will hit the P&L as that high-cost inventory ships in Q1

Why it matters

• Analyst Ben Bajarin noted that despite the beat, the after-hours stock reaction was muted because the market was unsatisfied with the gross margin guidance; he also pointed out the irony that the memory industry historically ran single-digit average gross margins, yet the market is now disappointed margins aren't heading toward 90%
• The call's comments on tighter FY2027/2028 supply-demand further confirm AI compute's sustained pull on the memory industry—a key signal for tracking the memory cycle

• Micron Q4 revenue hits $54.23B, up 379% YoY, crushing estimates on AI memory demand — zephyr_z9 · 2026-10-01
• Micron F4Q26 Revenue Hits $54.23B, Beats Consensus With 87% Gross Margin — McDonaghMatthew · 2026-10-01
• Micron beats earnings but stock cools as market frowns at margin guidance — BenBajarin · 2026-10-01
• Micron: FY2027 memory and storage supply-demand will be much tighter than FY2026 — firstadopter · 2026-10-01
• Micron says fiscal Q1 is the gross margin floor, higher margins ahead — firstadopter · 2026-10-01
• Micron Crushes Estimates as Quarterly Revenue Nearly Quadruples to $54.2B — Polymarket · 2026-10-01
• Micron FQ4 Revenue Hits $54.2B, Up 379% YoY; Guides Record $61.5B Next Quarter — Beth_Kindig · 2026-10-01
• Micron net income up 'only' 11X, tempering AI memory boom expectations — firstadopter · 2026-10-01
• Micron guidance points to structural memory tightness through 2030, not a cycle — McDonaghMatthew · 2026-10-01