Tessara publicly stakes that Micron's fiscal Q4 revenue will beat the Street's highest $52.08B estimate
tengyanAI · x · 2026-09-25
- AI research tool Tessara published a public "house view": Micron's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue (quarter ended Sept 3) should exceed $52.08 billion, above the highest of 22 analyst estimates in its Sept 22 snapshot; it assigns 80% probability to that and 50% to exceeding $54.5B.
- Evidence: TrendForce forecast conventional DRAM contract prices rising 13%-18% for July-September, and four Taiwan memory makers reported strong monthly revenue growth.
- Counter-case included: Micron's June outlook already flagged "a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases," so guidance may embed more upside; the DRAM price change in the Sept 30 print is the key number, resolution Oct 7.
- The full note with every assumption and original sources is open in Tessara for anyone to challenge the model.
Related event: Tessara Predicts Micron Revenue to Smash Street High Estimates(4 posts)→
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