Tessara details why Micron's Q4 revenue will beat the Street's highest estimate
tengyanAI · x · 2026-09-29
Tessara published a public, falsifiable call on Micron (MU) with a full research note:
- The stake: Micron's fourteen-week fiscal Q4 2026 revenue will exceed $52.08B — the highest of 22 analyst estimates in its Sept 22 snapshot — with 80% probability above that line, 50% above $54.5B, and a $56.2B base case vs. $49–51B guidance. Verdict reads GAAP revenue from the earnings 8-K; resolves Oct 7.
- Evidence chain: memory prices were forecast to rise after Micron's June 24 guidance, with TrendForce pricing data as core evidence; Taiwan's big four memory makers posted June–Aug revenue averaging 40% above Mar–May (TWD, equal 92-day windows).
- Falsifiability: the note explicitly lays out the assumptions that would make the call fail.
Related event: Tessara Bets Micron Q4 Revenue Will Top $52 Billion(4 posts)→
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