Tessara: 80% odds Micron's Q4 revenue tops $52B, beating every analyst estimate
tengyanAI · x · 2026-09-29
Research shop Tessara published an above-consensus call on Micron (MU) ahead of Wednesday's earnings:
- The call: 80% probability Q4 revenue exceeds $52B (highest analyst estimate $52B), 50% odds above $54.5B, with a base case of $56.2B vs. company guidance of $49–51B.
- Key clue: Taiwan's big four memory makers' June–August revenue (in TWD) averaged 40% above March–May over equal 92-day windows; stripping out Micron's extra week, its daily revenue still implies 12% growth.
- Open question: how much of higher memory prices actually reaches reported revenue.
Related event: Tessara Bets Micron Q4 Revenue Will Top $52 Billion(4 posts)→
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