METR: Anthropic model scores improving 1.9x faster since Oct 2025, AI 2027 timeline tracking
scaling01 · x · 2026-11-06
- A repost argues real-world progress is tracking the AI 2027 scenario, which assumes 2x AI-driven research speedup around Dec 2026; the poster's own median ASI estimate is 2028/2029, and the scenario has ASI arriving in 2027.
- Cited METR analysis quantifies the acceleration: since Oct 2025, AECI benchmark scores for Anthropic's models have grown at 1.9x the earlier rate (95% CI: 1.5–2.8). METR cautions that benchmarks are only one piece of evidence, estimates are sensitive to analysis choices, and how scores map to real-world capability remains unclear.
Related event: METR Report Suggests AI Is Now Accelerating AI Research Nearly 2x(23 posts)→
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