METR report on AI accelerating AI R&D flips a skeptic: >50% on superintelligence in 18 months
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-11-06
METR published a report assessing, with internal Anthropic information, whether AI is accelerating AI development itself. Investor Jake Mendel's response is going viral:
- He long had longer timelines than his Anthropic friends, suspecting an echo chamber, underestimated bottlenecks, and overstated model uplift
- If METR is right (he considers it among the most trustworthy sources), his Anthropic friends were more correct about timelines
- He now sees this as evidence a software-only singularity is plausible, putting >50% odds on full superintelligence within 18 months absent a slowdown
- His closing "I need to call my family" is spreading widely
Related event: METR Report: AI Nearly Doubling Anthropic's Research Progress(30 posts)→
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