Polymarket odds: only ~9% chance US enacts an AI safety bill by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-06
Polymarket launched a prediction market on US federal AI safety legislation: only 9-11% odds of enactment by December 31, 2026, rising to 83% by June 30, 2027. Market rules define qualifying bills as those imposing release bans or mandatory federal review, training restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements — provisions covering only federal government use don't count. The same account also broke the news of a man suing OpenAI over an alleged ChatGPT-assisted poisoning plot.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Just 9% on US AI Safety Law This Year(2 posts)→
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